After being defeated 4-0 by York City last weekend, Wealdstone come into this match sitting 11th in the National League table on 19 points. They are 10 points clear of Sutton United, who fell to bottom last weekend, as Truro City and Morecambe both claimed wins.
Andy’s Bet Club’s football analyst will break down Wealdstone’s recent clash with York City to see what the statistics indicate about how they might set up against Sutton United.
York City vs Wealdstone
Wealdstone might have been on the wrong end of a 4-0 thumping in York, but they were more competitive at the LNER Community Stadium than the final score suggested. They generated 1.69xG, which is their best figure in their last four matches, although the 2.68xG that York generated was the highest The Stones have allowed all season.
Efficiency was a major issue. Just 13.3% of their 15 shots hit the target, well below their season average of 32.6%. Given that they only managed 7.1% on target in their previous game, the hope is that a new trend is not starting to emerge.
Typically a possession-heavy team, they were unable to get on the ball as much as they would have wished in York. They were allowed just 40.4% of possession, a full 20% below what they have been accustomed to this term. It was their lowest possession figure for a league game this season and just the second time in 15 outings they have been outmatched in this area.
It’s notable that Wealdstone boss Sam Cox switched up his system for the trip to York, abandoning the three centre-backs that they have used since the start of September, to move back to a 4-2-3-1.
They were well-balanced when they attacked, slightly favouring the left side of the pitch, with 14 of their 38 attacks coming from this flank. However, these generated just 0.3xG compared to 0.73xG through the middle (13 attacks), and 0.66xG from the right (11 attacks).
Wealdstone’s One to Watch:
Dante Baptiste: One of the players to emerge with the most credit from the York defeat was Wealdstone’s goalkeeper, who faced 4.21xGA and made a joint season-high five reflex saves.
The shot-stopper also showed impressive accuracy with his long passing, posting an 82% completion rate from 17 attempts – up from his season average of 59.7% from 12.1. Prior to the trip to York, he had posted two clean sheets from four matches.
Final Thoughts:
Wealdstone are getting to grips with a double injury to two of their best performers in Anthony Georgiou and Alfie Massie, and York showed last week with a clinical display that they can be caught in this transitional period. Whether they persist with the 4-2-3-1 that struggled to have an impact last week, or revert to their usual three centre-backs, remains to be seen.
While Wealdstone have won five National League games, only one of these has come since September 2nd, showing they are not a side used to producing strong results.
The Stones are a team to be wary of, though. They have no outstanding goal threat but share the load well, with Enzio Boldewijn leading their scoring charts with four goals. Given they have generated 23.41xG – well about the league average of 21.97 – their creativity has not been found lacking.
Their ball possession figure of 60.5% is second in the league only to York and has been achieved thanks to a style of defending that is among the most intense in the league. With 8.85 PPDA, a measure of how intense a team presses, the Stones only trail Carlisle United (8.69) in the vigour of their defensive work.
Wealdstone do allow their opponents to get good looks at goal. The average xG of a shot against the Royals is 0.15, which is the third highest figure in the whole of the league, and compares to an average of 0.13 (as well as Sutton’s 0.127).
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Photo Credit: Wealdstone Football Club
